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RTPScore
Projection engine status: AI engine live updated 43 s ago
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RTP projection for the next 5 minutes

How probability works

A straightforward guide, with worked numbers, to understand what RTPScore shows and, above all, what it does not promise.

What RTP is

RTP (return to player) tells you how much a game pays back in prizes, on average, for every 100 wagered, over the long run.

An RTP of 96% means that, across millions of rounds, an average of 96 of every 100 wagered comes back.

96 paid back as prizes 4 kept by the house

House edge

It is the share the house keeps: 100 minus the RTP. With a 96% RTP, the house edge is 4%.

The observed RTP formula

Observed RTP = total paid ÷ total wagered × 100

Example: if bets add up to 1,000 and payouts add up to 965, the observed RTP is 965 ÷ 1,000 × 100 = 96.5%.

Short term vs. long term

Flip a coin 10 times and it is normal to get 7 heads and 3 tails, that is, 70% heads. Flip it 10,000 times and the result lands very close to 50%. That is the law of large numbers: the more repetitions, the closer the observed average gets to the theoretical average.

RTP works the same way. Over a short window, a few minutes or a few hundred rounds, the observed RTP swings widely above and below the standard. Only over the long run does it approach the theoretical value.

10 flips 70% heads

10,000 flips 50.2% heads

Illustrative example of coin flips

Volatility: same average, different paths

Two games can have the same RTP and behave very differently. The long run average is the same; what changes is how prizes are spread along the way.

Low volatility

Many small prizes. The balance moves up and down only a little.

High volatility

Few large prizes. Long stretches without a prize, then sudden jumps.

Illustration: prize size over 24 rounds

How RTPScore calculates the 5 minute projection

Each platform's number comes from a specialized calculation system. The site does not invent or adjust values: it receives the finished readings and organizes them using simple, public rules.

  1. Minute by minute readings

    Every minute, the calculation system sends, for each game, the RTP projection of the platforms it measures. Each reading is stored with the time it was calculated.

  2. More weight on recent data

    A short term projection relies mainly on each platform's most recent behavior: what happened just now counts more than what happened half an hour ago. That is why it is recalculated every minute.

  3. Trend

    The site compares each reading with the previous one for the same platform. That shows whether the projection is rising or falling, which is what the arrow and the sparkline display.

  4. Uncertainty range

    Every projection has a margin of error. Relatively few rounds happen in 5 minutes, so the actual result for that window can land above or below the projected number.

  5. Order and validity

    Platforms are listed from highest to lowest projection, along with the time until which it is valid. Readings older than 15 minutes are discarded: in that case the page shows "waiting for data" instead of old numbers.

The change arrow

  • the projection went up compared with the same platform's previous reading (in percentage points).
  • the projection went down compared with the previous reading.
  • the platform's first reading, with nothing to compare yet.

Expired projection and "waiting for data"

Each projection is valid for 5 minutes. If that time passes without a new reading, the page flags the projection as expired and dims the table. With no reading at all in the last 15 minutes, no number is shown as current.

Who calculates the index

The index is calculated by a team of mathematicians based on probability theory, starting from Kolmogorov's axioms and William Feller's work on random processes and random walks.

The calculation method is proprietary and is not disclosed. The site only receives the finished results and organizes them by game. The projection is not a guarantee or a promise of winnings.

Simulator: watch the law of large numbers in action

Choose an RTP, the volatility and the number of rounds. The simulator draws rounds with a bet of 1 and plots the cumulative RTP along the way.

Educational simulation using random numbers. No money is involved and it does not represent any real game or platform.

Before you play, remember

  • Every round is independent: the previous result does not change the next one.
  • The projection is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee or a prediction for any round.
  • There is no "paying hour" and nobody can predict the result of a spin.
  • Play responsibly and only with money you can afford to lose.
  • Adults only, 18 and over.

Responsible gambling